Previously Published Mar 21, 2005/Updated Sept
10th 2005
Molybdenum... Molymania... Exciting times for
some of our super alloy base metals these days it seems. Moly@$34.25
p/lb as I write. Rhenium - the by-product of some Molybdenum
deposits (derived from roasting process) - @ +/- $1000.00
p/oz. It seems prudent then that we should all have a better
understanding of what Moly is and what it can be used for.
We have many past, present and future uses of Molybdenum to
cover so I shall do so in point form. Also I would like to
address the projected future price of Molybdenum as expected
by end users and producers thru 2005. Lastly a comparison
of primary and by-product Molybdenum production should be
made.
Molybdenum typically occurs in skarns or porphyrys. Usually
the porphyry deposits are much larger, and thus more economic.
Moly is a soft ductile, refractory metal suitable
for alloys requiring high strength, and rigidity at temperatures
up to 3,000 degrees F.
Moly itself has a melting point of 4730 degrees
F, the 5th highest melt point of all the elements.
The unique properties of Molybdenum
alloys are utilized in many different applications
Corrosion resistance and strength in stainless steel, wrought
alloys and super alloys. These uses accounted for approximately
75% of Moly consumption in 2004.
High temperature heating elements, radiation
shields, forging dies, rotating X-ray anodes in clinical diagnostics,
glass melting furnace electrodes, heat sinks for matching
silicon for semiconductor chip mounts, interconnects on integrated
circuit chips, coatings for piston rings and machine components.
Smoke suppressants & solid lubricants to
reduce friction, Moly lubricants ie: grease & oils, engine
corrosion inhibitors in coolants, lubricants in space vehicles.
Chemical processing equipment, vessels, tanks
& pipelines, flame retardants, dry lubricants, light bulb
filaments, inorganic paint pigments, chemical catalysts and
desulfurization catalysts.
Non-ferrous alloys (super alloys) or nimonics
account for about 3% of total demand for Moly. They are used
in jet engine turbines, nuclear plants, gas turbines, space
exploration and general aviation.
Nuclear reactor vessels. The reactor vessel
serves to contain and support the reactor core and vessel
internals. It is constructed of Moly carbon steel, lined with
stainless Moly steel and has 8 inch thick walls.
Molybdenum is used for scrubbers in flue gas
desulfurization (FGD) in coal fired power stations around
the world. 9% to 16% Moly is used in inconel alloys for this
process.
Soil supplement in agriculture as well as human
and animal supplements.
Molybdenum alloyed with Rhenium (Mo-41Re &
Mo-47.5Re) is used in electronics, space programs & nuclear
industries. Moly-25% & Rhenium alloys are used for rocket
engine components and liquid metal heat exchangers.
Moly steel is used extensively in the millions
of miles of oil, gas and water pipelines around the world.
(ie; 2 million mi of oil pipelines in USA and 1.3 million
mi of gas pipelines) (source-U.S. Dept of Energy) the EIA
in a working paper states that "to meet the U.S. Energy
demand for natural gas alone the pipeline mileage must increase
by 30% or more. (cost est. $150 b). By 2025 EIA expects the
US will need 47% more oil & 54% more natural gas.
Now one must consider how many of the pipelines
built between 1930 and 1969 (over 2/3 of the current lines
in use today) need replacement, and how many 100s of thousands
of miles of new pipelines will be needed around the world
for our booming oil & gas industry and ever-increasing
demands. Consider the refineries and gas plants that need
to be built as well. Molybdenum plays a very big part in all
of these endeavors.
One of the largest uses of Molybdenum is in
drill stem steel tubing. In the 1970's when oil boomed so
did the price of Molybdenum rise. The many 1000s of onshore
and offshore drill rigs (and service rigs) in the world constantly
replace this drill tubing due to heat and metal fatigue, especially
with the depths now reached by our technology, and the heat
encountered at the greater depths & with the down-hole
weight of the drill stem stretching over many thousands of
feet. This may be one of the times in history when the demands
on Moly won't ease as the frantic search for new oil &
gas supplies due to peak oil having been reached will give
a new constant impetus to drill exploration.
On the immediate horizon for stainless steel
and Moly use also is the fact that new maritime regulations
now stipulate that all single hulled oil tankers built before
1987 must be decommissioned by 2010, and thus will be replaced
by double hulled tankers. From the information available it
appears that 170 vessels will be affected by this law by Apr.
5th 2005, the oil containment tanks in these ships are constructed
of a Moly alloy steel also. Coupled with China's maritime
fleet building in progress (military and commercial) it looks
like a bright future for Moly in this area as well. There
are at present about 3,600 tankers in the world. 1/3 of the
world's oil is transported by just 435 of them, the large
VLCCs (very large crude carriers).
Now to the space age
and future of Molybdenum
(This is the interesting part)
The SAFE-400 space fission reactor (safe affordable
fission engine) is a 400 kWt HPS producing 100 kWe to power
a space vehicle using two Brayton Power Systems gas turbines
driven directly by the hot gas from the reactor. The heat
exchanger outlet temperature is 880 degrees. The reactor has
127 identical heat pipe modules made of Molybdenum.
Wall material for space reactors. Thin 99.9%
purity Molybdenum foils for use in gas core reactors. Temperature
ranges from 1500 to 2000 K.
Molybdenum Rhenium alloys for spacecraft reactor
applications.
Molybdenum in ION space thrusters.
Molybdenum wire in radio telescopes.
NEXT generation ION thrusters, currently being
developed as well as near term Nuclear Electric Propulsion
(NEP) Program. Molybdenum & Carbon.
Multi layering in space telescopes with Molybdenum,
Carbide and Silicon. TRACE (Transition Region And Corona Explorer)
revealing the secrets of the Sun.
Molybdenum, Lithium "heat pipe." Los
Alamos N.M. A pencil sized tube of Molybdenum, with Lithium
core that moves heat from one end to the other may someday
allow astronauts to travel to Mars and beyond. The heat pipes
on NASA spacecraft will be in groups from 5 feet to 24 feet
long. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is working to develop
heat pipes for use in nuclear reactors to produce propulsion
and generate electricity for spacecraft to travel the outer
limits of the solar system. Heat pipes have been tested in
space from shuttle missions & performed flawlessly.
Now you can possibly see why the world is viewing
Molybdenum in a different light and it isn't just the demand
from China, India and developing nations that is driving the
price and uses. Moly is truly a metal of the future in many
ways and we may never see the same past monetary values placed
on it in our future. The era of the second industrial revolution
is upon us and it 'is' the 3rd world coming into the 21st
century at a very rapid rate that is placing great pressure
on base metal demand, but it also is the age of new and ever-changing
metal technologies, and I personally think Molybdenum will
play a very important part in this new era and will be a major
component of any base metal bull market.
If one considers that Moly mines may have a
new and more secure future than in the past then one should
consider that a "primary pure Molybdenum mine" has
no sulfides or copper to leach out of the finished product.
The Moly when crushed can be floated off by using a simple
soap or diesel fuel additive to the floatation tanks or columns
and agitated. The Moly particles adhere to the air bubbles
and rise to the surface to be collected (skimmed off). This
is a very simple, cost efficient and environmentally friendly
process. It is generally accepted that in the Moly by-product
production of copper mines, it takes 10 lbs. of CU produced
to acquire 1lb of Molybdenum. There are few primary Moly mines
at present in the world and fewer still coming to future production.
Let us not forget the adage. "If the whole
world had the lifestyle, material comfort and luxuries of
the western world, we'd need another planet for the supply
of natural resources." Because that transformation is
coming fast and the resources are finite, the cost of base
metals and energy sources is obviously going to get much more
expensive as time & world growth progresses. Mankind's
demands on base metals in our future will prove historical.
The 2005 Moly price projection - in a survey
done by "Ryan's Notes" in a presentation by Alice
Agoo, given in Ryan's Notes' 2005 Molybdenum meeting. This
survey was taken from 17 end users of Moly & 20 producers
(sellers).
The consensus forecast of each group in the
survey is the overall average, as are the combined forecasts.
End users:
Mid June /05...$27.39
Year end /05...$16.58
Sellers:
Mid June /05...$22.72
Year end /05...$15.31
Combined forecasts
Mid June /05...$24.92
Year end /05...$15.84
Ken J. Reser
Investor Relations Consultant
email: ykgold@telus.net
Ph: 403-844-2914
Note: If you wish to become part of my occasional
mailing list on Molybdenum & Gold reports please send
me an email.
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